Being about 24 hours removed from “The Match”, my heart is finally calm, my head is finally processing what my eyes saw, and my fingers are ready to type.
Among the mountains of blogs, articles, reports, etc. I’ve read and watched since match point, one of the more interesting formats was from Bud Collins’ blog on NBC Sports. So in tribute to Bud I will pay homage to his self Q & A format because it seems to organize my thoughts best.
Note: For the time being, I will refer to the 2008 Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Final Match simply as: “The Match”
1) Was “The Match” expected?
I don’t think anyone including pros, peers, journalists, prognosticators, the participants themselves, NO ONE could, would or possibly did expect to experience what we fans all had the privilege of witnessing and experiencing.
And I use the word “experiencing” because I can not emphasize enough just how this wasn’t merely another great match that we all watched sitting back on our favorite chair.
Just the fourth set tie-breaker alone!
If your heart didn’t pound throughout “The Match”… if you didn’t let out a yell from the bowels of your soul several times… if you didn’t pump your fist in the air several times throughout the match… if you didn’t get physical (either a high five or fist shot to the arm) with the person closest to you… if you weren’t absolutely and wholly spent both physically and mentally… you need to check your pulse.
Seriously, you might be a zombie.
You should go get that checked out.
(beat)
Douche.
(beat; clears throat)
Look, the fact is that this is something that couldn’t possibly be anticipated or even hoped for because who in their right mind could possibly conceive the roller coaster ride we all went through? We all expected a fight. We all expected a high quality match. Anything less would be another, wholly different type of shock.
But–
Could we have expected Federer’s only break of Nadal’s serve to be early on in the second set only to be immediately broken back twice and lose another 6-4?
Could we have anticipated Federer to come back in that third set after what, at the time, seemed like an eternal first rain delay?
Could we have expected Federer to punch through two HUGE match points late in the fourth set and ultimately win his fourth straight tie-breaker in two Wimbledon finals against Rafael Nadal?
Late in the fifth set Federer was TWO POINTS AWAY from his sixth straight Wimbledon title. This after two rain delays, clawing back from two sets down, pretty close to going down in three straight sets, fighting darkness, fighting fatigue, fighting Nadal.
These are things one couldn’t possibly anticipate.
2) How much did the delays play into the outcome?
The general feeling is that the first delay helped Federer and the second delay helped Nadal.
Looking back on the first delay now, I don’t think the delay hurt or helped anyone. Furthermore I think the argument could be made that it only slightly favored Nadal. I say this because Federer held serve at 30 just before the delay and the momentum was leaning slightly his way before the rain broke that. Also, with Nadal playing from behind (at the time of the delay, both players were on serve at 5-4 but Federer was the one with the 5) it wouldn’t have been crazy to think that Federer could’ve broken to close out the third set and carry that momentum into the fourth set. With the first delay, it allowed Federer’s momentum to snap and it also allowed Nadal time to regroup and rest his knees a bit more before coming back to level the set at 5-5.
I feel the exact same way about the second delay for very much a similar reason as the first. We left the match with Federer serving to Nadal’s ad court at 2-2, 40-30 in the fifth. Nadal won the point with a backhand punch volley away from Federer when God’s sprinklers came back on sending everyone back indoors. As anyone who’s ever played will tell you, with very few exceptions, you don’t want to leave the court in the middle of your service game. Federer was serving great throughout the tournament and throughout the final match. The last thing he would’ve wanted was to leave again, fully aware of the upcoming daylight issues, in the middle of his service game. At the very least let him finish his game and, hold or break, head back into the lockers. Until the last couple of games, Federer really looked quite comfortable throughout the fifth set, even getting as close as two points from winning the match.
3) Could a fifth set tie-break have produced a different outcome?
If Wimbledon was played out like The US Open where a tie-break could decide the final set, there is no doubt that Federer would have won his sixth straight title.
Now before the Majorca mafia puts a hit out on me on that one, Rafael Nadal is the 2008 Wimbledon Gentleman’s champion. He beat Federer. No excuses.
But based on their tie-break records, Federer’s stronger serve and the completely pro-Federer dynamics of a tie-break, I believe that Nadal would’ve found himself in a much tighter situation (including mentally) than knowing the fact that you have to win the fifth set and the match by two whole games rather than two small points.
If you disagree, please share. As you can tell, I love talking about this match!
4) How much did the stats play into the technical aspects of “The Match”?
This was a great match. The best. It is “The Match”. However, as you’ll see from the stats and from the actual match itself, it wasn’t a very clean match. Despite all the hyperboles and superlatives everyone (including myself) has thrown at this match (all true) there was a lot of unforced errors thrown in there. For Pete Sampras’ sake, the final point was decided on an unforced error on Federer’s favorite and best shot!
By my math, Federer hit approximately 30% winners out of all his 204 points won. Nadal did better at approximately 42% of his total 209 points won being winners. That’s a lot of left over points won from your opponent’s unforced errors, mistakes, nerves and brain farts.
Although the tennis was at an A+ quality by anyone’s standards, let’s not say that it was the most perfect match played technically. What really made this match special wasn’t the technical aspects but rather the drama, emotions, heart and soul that was the unrelenting constant that kept growing larger for four and a half hours.
The other key stat is in the break point conversions. If you had to go just based on that stat alone, the three break point conversion difference between Federer and Nadal is what decided the match. This is the only thing you can argue that accounts for the three sets Nadal won in the match. This was a bigger difference and key stat than all the unforced errors, the aces, first serve percentages and points won combined… this was everything.
5) What does this mean for the remainder of Rafael Nadal’s 2008 and beyond?
He’s already pulled out of the Mercedes Cup. He’s tired, man. He’s spent. Now with this monumental monkey off his back, it’ll be quite interesting to see how Nadal handles the Beijing Olympics, hard court season, the 2008 US Open, the year end masters. This is where, historically, Nadal kind of fades into the background allowing Djokovic, Roddick and Federer to shine. Don’t be surprised to see Nadal ride the glow of his Wimbledon match for the rest of the year without having much else to show.
And I don’t think he’ll really mind that all too much.
But the most important question for Nadal has been answered. He is one of the all time greats.
The greatest of all time? Not quite so fast, Bud Collins.
6) What does this mean for the remainder of Roger Federer’s 2008 and beyond?
This is a much much more interesting question.
Listening to John McEnroe talk about this just prior to “The Match”, it was interesting to hear him point out that at around the same age, when McEnroe lost his number 1 ranking, he never got it back. Furthermore, when Borg lost the ‘81 Wimbledon final to McEnroe, that was the very last Wimbledon he played at at the age of 26. The same age Federer is now.
Now I hope and don’t think that Federer will pull a Borg necessarily but as I’ve said before “The Match”, a loss, especially in the manner that it happened, has and will change Federer forever.
One thing I don’t agree with yet is how many people are already tossing off Federer as having hit his peak. I don’t believe that yet. I think the only way to truly answer that question is to see how Federer reacts in the next 12 months. Exactly 12 months.
Unless he friggin’ gets married. Then it’s all over.
Roger Federer 2.0 needs to change something. Now that change could range from anything from hiring a full time coach to changing his style of play all the way to potentially getting married to Mirka. Any one of those changes will change not only Federer but our own relationship to his stellar game.
There was more than one moment in “The Match” where I thought Federer was going to pull an old school Federer of throwing a racquet or screaming at the chair. Maybe that’s not far off.
7) How will this play into the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing?
Man, I don’t know. Does anyone even know when the tennis matches are during this summer’s Olympics?
Well, if there is any solace that Federer can take from the last five-seven weeks of tennis, it’s that he can still have a chance to win the one tournament that is only played once every four years.
Picture this: Federer wins the Olympic Gold, his fifth straight US Open and the year end Championships. He ends the year still ranked number one for a record fifth consecutive year. Suddenly 2008 doesn’t look so much like a wash anymore, does it?
Oh yeah, and the 2008 Beijing Olympics will be played on hard courts similar to the US Open.
Eight) How will this play into the 2008 US Open?
See #5 & #7
9) Will Federer still break Sampras’ 14 Grand Slam record?
My brain tells me yes. But it’s what’s going on in Federer’s brain that matters most.
As long as Federer doesn’t pull a vintage ‘81 Borg, Federer can definitely pull an Agassi/Sampras combination where he could win a combination of a couple more Aussies, Wimbledons and US Opens. Three more slams in the next four years (16 chances)? Absolutely.
10) Will Rafael Nadal break Federer’s 12 Grand Slam record?
My brain tells me no. If the hard courts don’t discourage Nadal, then his knees eventually will. At some point in the near future (3-5 years) Rafael Nadal may crash and burn purely based on his hard core style of play. Can he win a lot of majors in that time? Sure. Can he win another seven or eight? Doubtful.
11) What’s up with Rafa’s knees?
How freaked out were we when Rafa went down at 1-1 in the third set, calling for the trainer to check on his knees. It happened last year as well. Rafael’s aggressive style of play is not designed for a long career. It’s just plain too much wear and tear. Sure it plays fine at 22 years of age but that excitement can turn bad in a New York minute at 25, 26 years of age.
The dude is hardcore to the extreme! I just hope I don’t see one of those knees pop out of their sockets one day while I’m grubbing on a five dollar footlong from Subway. I don’t have a strong enough stomach for that.
12) Is this really “The Greatest Match Of All Time?
Yes.
Also read #1.
So now, what then?
My personal predictions are:
- This will be a very tough next two weeks for Roger Federer. By far the toughest professional two weeks of his life. No doubt about it. The dude is hurting right now like most of us could not even imagine outside of a personal tragedy.
But eventually he will break out of it. Just before he starts to train for the Beijing Olympics he will slowly begin to remember just who in the hell he is. Still the world’s number one player.
- The Olympic Gold Medal match will be contested between Switzerland’s Roger Federer and friggin’ Chile’s Nicolas Massu making another surprise comeback. Federer wins the gold.
- The 2008 US Open finals will culminate with Federer vs. Djokovic 2 which Federer will win in four sets. Nadal will lose in the quarters in a very tight four setter vs. American James Blake who will be carried through by the immensely pro US crowd.
- The year end ATP championships will culminate with a ho hum Djokovic vs. Davydenko final. Andy Roddick will be settling into his new gig outside the stadium signing programs at his “Try to return Andy’s serve” fun booth (sorry for the tasteless cheap shot, I couldn’t resist).
- Roger Federer will finish the year still ranked number one in the world for the fifth consecutive year.
Portrait of a Champion’s Soul in the Face of Defeat
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